S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern

Standard & Poor’s 500 (CME): (High: Dec//Low: Jan) This pattern evolved as the effect of a long-term, mostly steady bull market in which prices are usually higher at the end of the year than at the beginning. Weakness from mid-March into Apr associated with shift of financial resources from private into public sector in the form of tax payments.

S&P 500 Seasonal

As of 14 September 2016:

Dow Jones 10 year cycle patterns

 Dow Jones 10-Year Cycle

Typically, the US stock market has done well in years ending in ‘5’ (like 1975, 1985 or 1995). The stock market seems to follow a 10-year cycle. The chart above depicts the average 10-year course of the Dow Jones over approx. 100 years (i.e. the yellow part shows the average course of the years ending in ‘5’).

The years ending in ‘5’ have done extremely well in the 20th century. They produced an average gain of 34.61 %. This is the half of the entire average decennial gain! There was no losing year.

The following chart shows the performance of all years ending in ‘5’, not only for the 20th century, but also for the 19th century. It should be observed that there was no such phenomenon during the first eight decades in the 19th century. However, we may say that this is long ago.

The 5th Year in the Decennial Cycle
Data sources:
Dow Jones Company
Schwert, William: Indexes of United States Stock Prices from 1802 to 1987, Journal of Business, 63 (July 1990) p. 399-426

British Pound vs Australian Dollar Seasonal Pattern

Buy Dec 04 British Pound(IMM) / Sell Dec 04 Australian Dollar(IMM)
Enter on approximately 08/16 – Exit on approximately 10/24
Cont
Year
Entry
Date
Entry
Price
Exit
Date
Exit
Price
Profit
Amount
Best
Equity
Date
Best
Equity
Amount
Worst
Equity
Date
Worst
Equity
Amount
2003 08/18/03 33495 10/24/03 36061 2566.25 09/29/03 2982.50 09/16/03 -625.00
2002 08/16/02 41378 10/24/02 41480 102.50 09/30/02 2365.00 08/27/02 -1022.50
2001 08/16/01 37588 10/24/01 38340 752.50 09/27/01 5632.50 08/17/01 -1045.00
2000 08/16/00 34810 10/24/00 38102 3292.50 10/12/00 3910.00 09/11/00 -2777.50
1999 08/16/99 35040 10/22/99 38645 3605.00 10/21/99 4932.50 09/13/99 -227.50
1998 08/17/98 41020 10/23/98 43445 2425.00 08/28/98 6912.50 08/18/98 -290.00
1997 08/18/97 26228 10/24/97 32570 6342.50 10/24/97 6342.50 08/21/97 -2320.00
1996 08/16/96 18565 10/24/96 20425 1860.00 10/22/96 2067.50 09/10/96 -1172.50
1995 08/16/95 23195 10/24/95 24105 910.00 09/21/95 1927.50 09/13/95 -2842.50
1994 08/16/94 21883 10/24/94 28448 6565.00 10/20/94 7020.00 08/30/94 -435.00
1993 08/16/93 24760 10/22/93 24840 80.00 09/10/93 6907.50
1992 08/17/92 45983 10/23/92 29045 -16937.50 09/08/92 6287.50 10/21/92 -17732.50
1991 08/16/91 25050 10/24/91 27843 2792.50 10/03/91 4315.00 08/19/91 -2030.00
1990 08/16/90 37763 10/24/90 43972 6210.00 10/18/90 7825.00 09/21/90 -6332.50
1989 08/16/89 23805 10/24/89 24208 402.50 10/24/89 402.50 10/11/89 -4505.00
Percentage Correct 93 Protective Stop (1817)
Average Profit on Winning Trades 2707.59 Winners 14
Average Loss on Trades -16937.50 Losers 1
Average Net Profit Per Trade 1397.92 Total trades 15

Canadian Dollar Seasonal Pattern

Canadian Dollar (IMM): (High: Jan or Nov//Low: Dec) Currency has often been weak at contract expiries. Fifteen-year pattern implies general bear market, with tendency to be lower at end of each successive year.

Canadian Dollar(IMM)-September
Buy on approximately 05/28 – Exit on approximately 07/02 Contract Size: 100,000 Canadian Dollars
Cont
Year
Buy
Date
Buy
Price
Exit
Date
Exit
Price
Profit Profit
Amount
Best
Equity
Date
Best
Equity
Amount
Worst
Equity
Date
Worst
Equity
Amount
2004 05/28/04 73.12 07/02/04 75.48 2.36 2360.00 07/02/04 2360.00 06/16/04 -560.00
2003 05/28/03 71.79 07/02/03 74.45 2.66 2660.00 06/13/03 2730.00
2002 05/28/02 65.17 07/02/02 65.39 0.22 220.00 06/27/02 780.00 06/17/02 -710.00
2001 05/29/01 64.95 07/02/01 65.98 1.03 1030.00 06/29/01 1050.00 05/30/01 -330.00
2000 05/30/00 66.53 06/30/00 67.67 1.14 1140.00 06/19/00 1870.00
1999 05/28/99 67.90 07/02/99 68.42 0.52 520.00 06/16/99 690.00 06/01/99 -440.00
1998 05/28/98 68.88 07/02/98 68.24 -0.64 -640.00 06/02/98 150.00 06/15/98 -910.00
1997 05/28/97 72.82 07/02/97 72.96 0.14 140.00 06/03/97 440.00 06/25/97 -720.00
1996 05/28/96 72.80 07/02/96 73.67 0.87 870.00 06/25/96 920.00
1995 05/30/95 72.62 06/30/95 72.72 0.10 100.00 06/30/95 100.00 06/06/95 -510.00
1994 05/31/94 71.93 07/01/94 72.13 0.20 200.00 06/07/94 630.00 06/17/94 -500.00
1993 05/28/93 78.19 07/02/93 77.41 -0.78 -780.00 06/02/93 120.00 07/01/93 -840.00
1992 05/28/92 82.58 07/02/92 82.84 0.26 260.00 06/12/92 1000.00 06/01/92 -10.00
1991 05/28/91 86.50 07/02/91 87.06 0.56 560.00 06/28/91 620.00
1990 05/29/90 83.37 07/02/90 85.16 1.79 1790.00 07/02/90 1790.00
Percentage Correct 87
Average Profit on Winning Trades 0.91 911.54 Winners 13
Average Loss on Trades -0.71 -710.00 Losers 2
Average Net Profit Per Trade 0.70 695.33 Total trades 15

Japanese Yen Seasonal Pattern

Japanese Yen (IMM): (High: Oct or Dec//Low: Jan-Mar) Japan’s fiscal year begins Apr 1, with mid-year Oct 1 also important to balance sheets.

Japanese Yen Seasonal

The prime example is August, the month in which the market has been down every year since 1999. During that time, USD/JPY fell for the month at least 137 pips each time around, with most of the declines coming in at better than 200 pips. The average has been 320 pips, which translates to a move of 2.80%.

In the case of EUR/JPY, as one might expect, August is a consistent down month, though there has been one up month since 1999. The average decline has been over 300 pips. November has been equally biased to the upside in terms of the 6:1 ratio, but the average rise is only 77 pips. The really interesting month, however, is December. The market rose every year from 2000 to 2004. Even though it fell in 2005, the cross has averaged a 350+ pip increase each year.

Weekday patterns filtered by month (1999-2005)

Weekday Month Up:Down Up/Down % Avg. Pips Avg. %
Tuesday August 9:22 Down 71% -27 -0.23%
Thursday August 11:20 Down 65% -13 -0.10%
Friday August 11:20 Down 65% -12 -0.10%
Monday January 11:20 Down 62% -30 -0.26%
Tuesday May 12:18 Down 60% -22 -0.18%
Wednesday November 20:9 Up 69% 15 0.15%
Friday September 19:10 Up 65% 26 0.24%
Thursday January 19:10 Up 65% 20 0.18%
Wednesday February 18:10 Up 64% 33 0.30%
Tuesday December 18:11 Up 62% 15 0.13%
Source: Anduril Analytics