Category: Seasonal

British Pound Seasonal Pattern

British Pound (IMM): (High: Nov-Jan//Low: Feb-Mar or Sep) UK fiscal year begins Apr 1. Currency has tended to be weakest at end of fiscal year (Feb-Mar) and at mid-point (Sep), strongest in first month of each calendar quarter.

GBP/USD Seasonal

Against the USD, the Pound has two months in which it has shown a notable directional tendency. They are September and December, as can be seen below. In the case of the former, GBP/USD has risen six of the last seven years, averaging an increase of over 230 pips for the month in that span. Actually, 2005 broke a string of twelve consecutive September gains in the pair.


Source: Anduril Analytics

Swiss Franc Seasonal Pattern

Swiss Franc (IMM): (High: Oct or Dec//Low: Feb-Mar or May-Jun) Franc has regularly declined from beginning of new calendar year into Feb through early Aug. Powerful rise into October has often carried into year end.

CHF/USD Seasonal

December too has been more CHF positive than EUR positive. The ratio of up to down years is 5 to 2, but it is the way in which that has developed which is very interesting. The average loss for USD/CHF over that span is more than 360 pips, but a great deal of that came in the form of two years during which the market dropped more than 1000 pips, and there was another one when the December decline was better than 500 pips. The remaining years were all significantly less volatility, including those when the CHF was weaker.


Source: Anduril Analytics

Euro Seasonal Pattern

Seasonal rise in euro, starting on August 11 and ending on October 17. The increase was observed in 25 of 31 years, resulting in an average profit of +4%. But there were also 6 years, where the price of the euro fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -3.7%. The overall rise during all 31 years was +2.5% p.a.

EUR/USD Seasonal

Data from 4 Jan 1971 to 21 July 2006.