Fed Funds vs Election Cycles

The Fed Playing Political Games?

If a Republican candidate (Donald Trump) wins the Fed is normally tightening rates before the election. Otherwise Democrats (Hillary Clinton) win. At present, Fed has been holding off increasing rates a lot longer than the market expects.

gbp-longterm-logscale

Ultra long-term British Pound chart

Data sources: Global Financial Data, Bloomberg Data is available from 1660 but due to the spike in the exchange rate up to 5000 between 1776-1781 it has been excluded in order to show a better scaled chart. Analysis by PolarPacific (July 2004):   Some levels of interest 2.00: last peak (prior to EMS crisis) 2.20: [..]
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hedgefund

The Hedge Fund Song

(to the tune of “What Is a Man?”) There are so many, so many Hedge funds to choose Which one is the best hedge fund for me? They all are long-and-short, as far as I can see Seven thousands funds, one strategy. There is no risk None whatsoever Win, lose or draw They take my [..]
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Short Talk

(Lyrics by Laurel Kenner and Victor Niederhoffer) Original lyrics and music from the song “Small Talk” in the 1952 musical “Pajama Game” by Richard Adler and Jerry Ross I don’t want to sell stocks short When there’s been a big decline I don’t want to sell stocks short Buy and hold is more my line [..]
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The Bottom Line

Johnny Cash sings “Walk the Line” I keep a close watch on this stock of mine I keep eyes wide open all the time I set a loose stop in case a big decline I hope you mind, the bottom line I find it very, very tempting to sell you I find myself alone in [..]
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How To Become A Good Spec

By Victor Niederhoffer (adapted by Gary Rogan) When the day is filled with sorrow And your screen is flashing red, Will you live to fight tomorrow Or decide that you’re dead? Will you turn out like Mike Bastian, Knowing how to play the game, Or like poor St. Sebastian Stopping arrows with your frame? Will [..]
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Payroll Friday

(to the tune of Manic Monday) By George Zachar Eight-thirty already? I was just in the middle of a dream. I was boinking Angelina in My brand new G5 Gulfstream. But I must wake up because the payroll report just came This is a day When I so often get maimed. It’s just another payroll [..]
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