Gold Seasonal Pattern

Gold (CMX): (High: Jan//Low: Jul or Sep) Demand is usually weakest in Northern Hemisphere summer, especially August when European jewelry manufacturers are essentially shut down. Demand is greatest going into fourth quarter, during which consumption is highest as gift-giving peaks beginning with Indian harvest and wedding festivals in autumn and carrying through US religious holidays and Chinese new year.

Gold Spot:

Gold Seasonal

Natural Gas Seasonal Pattern

Energy Seasonals
Seasonal
Strategy
Entry
Date
Exit
Date
Win
Pct
Win
Years
Loss
Years
Total
Years
Average
Profit
1 Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-July 3/01 5/09 93 14 1 15 2059
2 Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-June 3/20 5/14 93 14 1 15 1885
3 Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-June 4/08 5/09 93 14 1 15 1456
4 Buy Unleaded Reg.(NYM)-June 4/12 4/29 93 14 1 15 1095
5 Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-June 2/25 4/15 100 13 0 13 2862
6 Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-July 2/25 4/21 92 12 1 13 3108
7 Buy Natural Gas(NYM)-May 3/14 4/21 92 12 1 13 2638

Gasoline Seasonal

Crude Oil Seasonal Pattern

Crude Oil (NYM): (High: Oct//Low: Dec) Twin peaks in demand built on pillar of primary product demand. Weakness into Feb due to reduced demand for heating oil. Strength into Mar-May as inventories of gasoline built prior to US driving/vacation consumption. Lowest consumption of heating oil Jun-Aug, but demand for inventory grows prior to winter. Decline into Dec as refiners sharply curtail purchases to avoid year-end inventory tax.

WTI Global Spot:

Crude Oil Seasonal

Possible trade: Seasonal rise in crude oil, starting on July 24 and ending on September 18. The increase was observed in 17 of 24 years, resulting in an average profit of +12.6%. But there were also 7 years, where the price of crude oil fell during this period of the year. The average loss then was -5.4%. The overall rise during all 24 years was +7.1% p.a..

Crude Oil(NYM)-August
Buy on approximately 03/20 – Exit on approximately 05/17 Contract Size: 1,000 barrels
Cont
Year
Buy
Date
Buy
Price
Exit
Date
Exit
Price
Profit Profit
Amount
Best
Equity
Date
Best
Equity
Amount
Worst
Equity
Date
Worst
Equity
Amount
2006 03/20/06 64.20 05/17/06 70.33 6.13 6130.00 05/02/06 12520.00
2005 03/21/05 58.55 05/17/05 51.21 -7.34 -7340.00 04/04/05 570.00 05/16/05 -7730.00
2004 03/22/04 35.01 05/17/04 40.97 5.96 5960.00 05/17/04 5960.00 04/01/04 -2160.00
2003 03/20/03 26.51 05/16/03 28.10 1.59 1590.00 05/14/03 1670.00 04/29/03 -1500.00
2002 03/20/02 24.90 05/17/02 27.00 2.10 2100.00 05/14/02 3120.00 04/12/02 -1500.00
2001 03/20/01 26.19 05/17/01 29.24 3.05 3050.00 05/01/01 3170.00 04/02/01 -360.00
2000 03/20/00 25.67 05/17/00 28.96 3.29 3290.00 05/16/00 3410.00 04/10/00 -2750.00
1999 03/22/99 15.59 05/17/99 17.76 2.17 2170.00 05/05/99 2780.00 03/24/99 -270.00
1998 03/20/98 15.61 05/15/98 15.82 0.21 210.00 03/26/98 1860.00
1997 03/20/97 21.31 05/16/97 22.02 0.71 710.00 05/16/97 710.00 04/04/97 -1960.00
1996 03/20/96 18.39 05/17/96 18.84 0.45 450.00 04/29/96 1600.00
1995 03/20/95 18.20 05/17/95 19.60 1.40 1400.00 05/01/95 1620.00 03/21/95 -40.00
1994 03/21/94 15.40 05/17/94 17.06 1.66 1660.00 05/12/94 2030.00 03/28/94 -940.00
1993 03/22/93 19.98 05/17/93 20.02 0.04 40.00 04/02/93 920.00 05/14/93 -10.00
1992 03/20/92 19.19 05/15/92 20.91 1.72 1720.00 05/11/92 1940.00
Percentage Correct 93
Average Profit on Winning Trades 2.18 2177.14 Winners 14
Average Loss on Trades -7.34 -7340.00 Losers 1
Average Net Profit Per Trade 1.54 1542.67 Total trades 15

30-year T-Bond Seasonal Pattern

30-Year T-Bonds (CBOT): (High: Nov-Dec//Low: Apr-May) Prices decline (and interest rates firm) during first quarter, perhaps as market anticipates tightening liquidity with massive shift of financial resources from private to public sector in form of tax payments. By FND for June contract, FED may begin recirculating funds, fueling rally through remainder of tax year. Taxes due Apr 15; US fiscal year begins October 1.

US Bonds Seasonal

S&P 500 Seasonal Pattern

Standard & Poor’s 500 (CME): (High: Dec//Low: Jan) This pattern evolved as the effect of a long-term, mostly steady bull market in which prices are usually higher at the end of the year than at the beginning. Weakness from mid-March into Apr associated with shift of financial resources from private into public sector in the form of tax payments.

S&P 500 Seasonal

As of 14 September 2016: