Japanese Yen (IMM): (High: Oct or Dec//Low: Jan-Mar) Japan’s fiscal year begins Apr 1, with mid-year Oct 1 also important to balance sheets.
The prime example is August, the month in which the market has been down every year since 1999. During that time, USD/JPY fell for the month at least 137 pips each time around, with most of the declines coming in at better than 200 pips. The average has been 320 pips, which translates to a move of 2.80%.
In the case of EUR/JPY, as one might expect, August is a consistent down month, though there has been one up month since 1999. The average decline has been over 300 pips. November has been equally biased to the upside in terms of the 6:1 ratio, but the average rise is only 77 pips. The really interesting month, however, is December. The market rose every year from 2000 to 2004. Even though it fell in 2005, the cross has averaged a 350+ pip increase each year.
Weekday patterns filtered by month (1999-2005)
|Weekday||Month||Up:Down||Up/Down %||Avg. Pips||Avg. %|