S&P 500 market speculation until 2010

Source: S Drozdz, F Grummer, F Ruf and J Speth
Date: 29 April 2007

The information below is extracted from a paper () presented in March 2005. The authors have shown that log-period oscillations are present across various time scales. This can be seen in the first long term chart since 1800. The second chart shows the zoomed in rectangle for the period 1997-2002 with accelerating and decelerating lognormal functions. Note that both charts are log scaled.

The next stock market top is estimated to occur in around the years 2010-2011 as shown in the chart below. The period has two main components as shown by the thin lines. The first is the long term component accelerating towards 2010 and the second is the decelerating component from Sep 2001.